In just eight days, Americans will head to the polls and cast their vote for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. And the stakes of this election are high — even for us in the Netherlands.
Especially when it comes to the economy, a Trump win could have consequences here across the Atlantic.
For instance, expert economists from ABN AMRO have estimated that another Trump presidency would cost each of us around €500 per year, reports the AD.
“Under Trump, the risks are much greater”
When measuring the impact of the US elections on Europe, experts agree that a Trump presidency would have a much greater impact… and a negative one.
If Harris wins, little will change, Rogier Quaedvlieg from ABN AMRO tells the AD; but if Trump wins, “the risks are much greater.”
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The risks of what exactly, you ask? Trump’s proposed trade tariffs.
Trump, well-versed in taxes (and ways to dodge them), plans to introduce a general import tariff on all goods entering the United States. The goal? To bring manufacturing jobs that moved from America to Asia back to the US.
10%, 20%, or more?
While it is pretty likely that Trump would introduce such taxes, the specifics of his plan remain vague. Depending on which speech you listen to, the proposed import tax could be anywhere between 10%, 20%, or even more.
One thing is clear: if imported goods become more expensive, Americans will buy more domestic products, and Dutch exporters will have to pay up — be it by cutting profits, moving production to the US, or simply selling less.
The result? ABN AMRO estimates that a 10% tariff alone could cut Dutch economic growth by 2% over four years, with a steeper tariff slowing it even further.
The EU is prepared for a trade showdown
So, is the European Union just going to sit there and watch Trump shake up the European economy? Nuh-uh.
As outlined by Politico, EU leaders are prepared for a high-stakes trade war with Donald Trump if he wins a second term next week. “We will hit back fast and hard,” one senior diplomat says.
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If the EU responds with its own tariffs, raising import taxes for the US, American products will become more expensive.
That’s what the ABN AMRO experts’ €500 estimate is about: it’s the estimated cost this potential trade war could have on the average Dutch resident.
How do you feel about a possible second presidential term for Donald Trump? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Feature image: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons/CC2.0
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