Less than a week before the Dutch elections, the country’s major parties are crawling closer together in the polls while voter uncertainty remains sky-high.
The polling landscape has shifted somewhat in recent days, according to the latest Peilingwijzer (poll indicator) from NOS.
How? The PVV (Party for Freedom) still leads, but Geert Wilders has watched his once-commanding advantage slip away.
Wilders’ PVV remains the largest party with 25 to 31 seats, but has dropped significantly over the past month. For a man who once seemed destined to sweep the elections, that’s quite the comedown.
Meanwhile, D66 surges as CDA stumbles
The real story here is D66’s (Democrats 66) continued rise. Rob Jetten’s party, which currently holds nine seats in parliament, now stands at 19 to 23 seats in the Peilingwijzer, making it roughly equal in size to the CDA (The Christian Democratic Appeal).
However, the trend is clear: D66 is gaining momentum. And if past elections indicate anything, it’s that this kind of momentum decides elections in the last few days.
Meanwhile, the CDA has had a rough week. They have suffered significant losses, dropping to 18 to 22 seats after party leader Henri Bontenbal defended religious schools’ right to reject homosexual relationships during a Nieuwsuur interview.
Even Bontenbal’s subsequent apology hasn’t stopped voters from abandoning ship.
Many potential CDA voters are troubled by his stance and have been reminded that the C in CDA stands for Christian. The result? They’re switching to D66 for a centrist alternative.
Why Wilders is losing steam
So what’s causing the PVV’s slide? Research from Ipsos I&O suggests voters are turning away partly because they believe Wilders won’t actually end up in government.
This is because the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) and CDA continue to rule out a future coalition with the PVV.
There’s also growing criticism of the man himself. Where Wilders was praised for supposed moderation in the previous election, potential PVV voters now criticise him for “walking away” from the Schoof cabinet and being too crude in his rhetoric.
The VVD claws its way back
Not all the news is dire for the right. The VVD appears to be cautiously climbing out of its slump, standing at 14 to 18 seats, about two to three seats above the low point reached two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance holds steady at 22 to 26 seats, maintaining second place but with only a narrow lead over its rivals.
What isn’t helping their momentum is their current leader, Frans Timmermans, who is still intensely unpopular with other voters.
Still anyone’s game
Here’s the thing: a massive 45% of voters are still undecided, whilst only just over half have a clear preference.
That means next Wednesday’s results could swing in virtually any direction. There are some factors at play: a lower turnout traditionally means fewer votes for the PVV.
D66, meanwhile, has the biggest “voter potential” — meaning it has the biggest chance to turn voters to them.
The traditional game-changing debate hasn’t materialised this time either. In the 2023 elections, Wilders dominated the SBS6 debate, but this year’s viewers felt Yeşilgöz and Bontenbal performed a bit better.
With such tight margins and so many wavering voters, the October 29 election remains rather unpredictable. We’ll have to wait until 9 PM on Wednesday and see what the exit-poll brings us.
Can you vote? Have you decided who you’re voting for yet, or are you part of that undecided 45%? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
