On Wednesday, 29 October, the Netherlands headed to the polls in what turned out to be one of the tensest national elections in recent memory.
All eyes were on Geert Wilders and his PVV party to see if they’d claim the top spot or if another contender would pip them to the post.
For now, it looks like Rob Jetten and D66 have just scraped ahead, but only by the thinnest of margins. The votes are still being counted, and nothing’s set in stone yet.
So, what can we take away from these parliamentary elections? Let’s break down the key points.
1. Exit polls aren’t as accurate as we hoped
The first thing we’ve learned from this election? Exit polls still aren’t the same as actual results, shocking, we know.
What looked like a clear win for Rob Jetten and D66 last night has morphed into a photo finish. In the 9 PM exit poll, D66 was projected to take 27 seats, with Geert Wilders’ PVV hot on their heels with 25.
But as the real votes were counted through the night, things got dramatically tighter.
By five in the morning, both D66 and the PVV stood at 26 seats each, with a measly 1,200 votes separating them according to AD.
Technically, it’s still a D66 win. Technically.
The VVD and CDA also lost an extra seat each compared to the exit poll, which went to Forum voor Democratie and the Christian Union instead.
2. It was a painful night for GroenLinks–PvdA
It was another rough evening for the left. GroenLinks–PvdA dropped five seats compared to the last election, landing at 20 seats.
Their unpopular leader, Frans Timmermans, didn’t exactly stick around to face the music. He announced his resignation right there on stage during the party’s gathering.
Wat hebben jullie een geweldige campagne gevoerd. Flyeraars op elk station, huis-aan-huis-huizers in elke straat. Niemand doet dit ons na.
— GroenLinks-PvdA (@gl_pvda) October 29, 2025
Vanavond is jullie inzet niet helemaal beloond. Maar vergis je niet. Er komen betere tijden.
Doe mee. Word nu lid: https://t.co/ksYRDfK8Wu pic.twitter.com/ImHpngPU2L
Translation: What an amazing campaign you all ran. Flyer distributors at every station, door-to-door canvassers in every street. No one can match this. Tonight, your efforts haven’t been fully rewarded. But make no mistake. Better times are coming.
Rumours are already swirling that Jesse Klaver or Marjolein Moorman might step up, but for now, it’s safe to say it was a gloomy night for GroenLinks–PvdA.
3. The VVD narrowly escaped disaster
The VVD didn’t do nearly as badly as the polls predicted. Despite dipping to 22 seats, they avoided the total wipeout that many were expecting.
Pre-election surveys had them hovering between 10 and 15 seats, so this outcome? Something of a relief.
Dilan Yeşilgöz won’t be stepping down after all, and the party can quietly claim a moral victory and play politics in the upcoming coalition building.
4. Big parties are small, and small parties are everywhere
One clear takeaway from this election is just how fragmented the Dutch political landscape has become.
The largest party — whether it’s D66 or the PVV — has a grand total of 26 seats. That’s the lowest for a winning party in modern Dutch history. For comparison, the VVD nabbed 31 back in 2010.
Below that? A sea of smaller parties with fewer than five seats each. For anyone outside the Netherlands, it’s a fascinating (and slightly chaotic) system to witness.
5. Coalition chaos: coming to a Tweede Kamer near you
And now, the million-euro question: what kind of coalition will the Netherlands end up with?
Realistically, there are only two viable paths. The most likely scenario is a coalition between D66, the CDA, and the VVD. The real question is who’ll join them as the fourth wheel.
At first glance, GroenLinks–PvdA might seem the logical choice. But given how tense relations have been, the VVD may prefer to pull in a smaller right-wing party like JA21 instead.
As always, forming a coalition in the Netherlands will take ages, even though everyone’s desperate for a stable government again.
6. Don’t expect a new prime minister anytime soon
Coalition talks here are never quick, and this time will be no exception.
Most insiders expect negotiations to drag well into 2026 before a new cabinet is officially formed. Yes, really.
When that moment finally comes, it’s looking increasingly likely that the next prime minister will be Rob Jetten: the fresh-faced leader of D66, and now, the man holding the narrowest of leads.
So, what do you reckon? Will Rob Jetten actually make it to the finish line, or is this lead going to evaporate faster than Dutch sunshine? Let us know your predictions in the comments.
