It’s hard to tell what will happen next in life, but when it comes to the future of the Dutch housing market, there are some experts you can turn to — so that’s exactly what we did.
Many internationals in the Netherlands stand on the precipice of becoming homeowners. There’s often just one thing holding them back: uncertainty about the future. What if the housing market crashes? What if they miss out on better interest rates? What if it’s already too late?
We decided to speak with Kenneth Leenders from Expat Mortgages and have him answer some of our most burning questions about the current Dutch housing market and, more importantly, its future.
Here’s what we learned. 👇
What does the Dutch mortgage landscape currently look like?
One of the first things Kenneth tells us is that in 2024, despite all odds, people are continuing to buy houses in the Netherlands — in fact, even more than usual.
“What I see is that there’s a significant increase in people buying houses since the beginning of this year.”
And no, it’s not just wealthy landlords who are achieving this. As Kenneth tells us, “We see that there are way more mortgages coming through for first-time buyers.”
It’s not just first-timers who are having all the luck either, but also current homeowners. “We have many clients who are increasing their mortgage, you also see a lot of people that already own a home buying a new property.”
Good news, right? There’s only one downside: the amount of people currently buying homes is so high that people actually have to wait a bit longer than usual to hear back from mortgage lenders.
READ MORE | Which experts can save you money when buying a house in the Netherlands?
“You see that the amount of time it takes for a mortgage to get approved is longer,” Kenneth says. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be a problem for you.
He explains that Expat Mortgages has long-standing relationships with mortgage lenders, meaning they can help expedite the process.
Want to know more about what Expat Mortgages can do for you? They offer completely free consultations to calculate your maximum mortgage and walk through your personal mortgage options.
What is expected for Dutch mortgage interest rates?
One important factor that many people consider before taking out a mortgage in the Netherlands is the mortgage interest rates at the time.
So, what can we expect to happen in the coming years?
“Looking towards the future is difficult,” Kenneth begins — but then we see his expertise kick in.
“In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to begin cutting interest rates as inflation shows signs of easing. This monetary policy shift will likely have effects across multiple global financial markets, including Europe,” he explains.
He tells us that in the Netherlands, both long-term and short-term mortgage rates are influenced by a combination of factors, including the actions of central banks like the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB).
“With the Fed anticipated to lower rates, there is potential for a slight decrease in global bond yields, which could lead to lower long-term mortgage rates in the Netherlands.”
READ MORE | Your borrowing power for a mortgage in the Netherlands in 2024
And what about those short-term mortgage interest rates? Kenneth tells all: “If the ECB also adopts a more accommodative stance, short-term mortgage rates in the Netherlands might follow a similar downward trend.”
Put simply, Kenneth expects both long-term and short-term mortgage rates in the Netherlands to see some reduction. However, the exact magnitude will depend on central bank policies and broader economic conditions.
READ MORE | Is Expat Mortgages worth it when buying a house in the Netherlands? Full review [2024]
“I expect long-term mortgage rates to trend downward gradually due to potential decreases in global bond yields and the ECB’s accommodative policies. And I expect short-term mortgage rates to decrease more immediately if the ECB responds to the Fed’s actions.”
Well then, which should you opt for? Short-term or long-term mortgage interest rates? That’s hard to determine, but Kenneth gives his two cents:
“Short-term rates have been above long-term rates for quite a while now, due to central bank actions,” he explains.
READ MORE | What costs do you pay when buying a house in the Netherlands?
“However, I believe this trend is likely to shift as central banks begin to ease their monetary policies. Over time, I expect the more traditional relationship, where long-term rates exceed short-term rates.”
In other words, he expects long-term mortgage interest rates to exceed short-term mortgage interest rates in the future.
That being said, Kenneth is quick to emphasise that life is full of surprises: “It’s difficult to predict because there are so many different things that can happen.”
What is the Dutch government doing to help?
Changes in the political scene can also hugely impact the future of the housing market. So, what is the current Dutch government doing to help the housing market?
“That’s still a guess for everyone,” Kenneth laughs, but he tells us what he can see happening right now.
He explains that there are several changes that the government is making to try and help hopeful homeowners in the Netherlands. For example, in 2024:
- The limit to be eligible for a mortgage with the National Mortgage Guarantee has been increased to €435,000.
- It’s also easier to be eligible for exemption from transfer tax. First-time buyers are now exempt from paying transfer tax if they buy a home worth up to €510,000.
- Singles can borrow more money towards their mortgage.
- More incentives are being introduced to encourage homeowners to buy or renovate sustainable homes.
With these measures in place, the Dutch government hopes to encourage more first-time buyers to become homeowners — and given what Kenneth has seen so far, in 2024, this appears to be working.
READ MORE | What is the Dutch National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG)?
He points out that banks are also trying to encourage more people to get on the property ladder. Specifically, if those properties involve anything that includes the magic “s” word: sustainability.
He explains that banks will give buyers a “duurzaamheidskorting”, or in other words, a reduced mortgage interest rate if you plan on buying or renovating a home with a high energy label.
That sounds very helpful indeed. ☘️
An expert’s advice for internationals looking to buy a home in the Netherlands
Kenneth’s advice for internationals considering buying a home in the Netherlands is simple: if you can, do it.
“What I still say is if you plan on staying here longer than two and a half or three years, then I think buying a property is a great choice,” he tells us.
“You see that new renting regulations are aiming to make it better for renters, but the rental market is crazy at the moment.”
And indeed, Kenneth is correct. In 2024, rent in the Dutch private sector has increased by nearly 10% compared to 2023.
If you have any way to get out from the renter’s market and into the buyer’s market, now is a good time to try and take the leap, he says.
READ MORE | How will my student debt affect my chances of getting a mortgage in the Netherlands?
“As pressure in the rental market is growing higher, then I think buying is still a really good option to investigate.”
However, he’s quick to note that you need to ensure you have the funds to do so.
Not sure if now is the right time for you to buy a house? You can book an appointment with the experts from Expat Mortgages completely free of charge to discuss your mortgage options.
Will you be hopping on the Dutch property ladder this year? Tell us your thoughts in the comments below!
