If you’ve been following Dutch politics lately, you’ll know that political stability isn’t exactly the Netherlands’ strongest suit right now.
According to the latest EenVandaag poll, the VVD has plummeted to just 15 seats, a dramatic eight-seat drop from their previous 23… and their worst performance in decades.
What’s happening to the VVD?
The liberal party that once dominated Dutch politics under Mark Rutte is experiencing a spectacular collapse.
Party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz is facing mounting criticism, with only 31% of former VVD voters expressing confidence in her leadership, down from 77% just two months ago.
Adding insult to injury, over half of past VVD voters (56%) now think Yeşilgöz should step down. Her current supporters are a little more forgiving, with 64% backing her to stay, but they’re advising her to be “less populist” and focus more on traditional VVD policies.
The bigger political picture
Meanwhile, the PVV has regained its position as the largest party with 33 seats, followed by GroenLinks-PvdA at 26 seats. The CDA continues its steady rise to 22 seats, making it the third-largest party and potentially crucial for any future Dutch coalition.
The political trend is clear: the CDA is rising while the VVD is falling.
But why is the CDA so popular? Well, the party’s popularity can largely be attributed to its leader, Henri Bontenbal, who has emerged as the preferred choice for prime minister with 44% support according to an RTL Nieuws poll.
Bontenbal significantly outpaces his rivals and is seen as someone who “chooses his words carefully” and comes across as “sympathetic” to voters.
What this means for coalition building in the Netherlands
With these numbers, forming a stable government after the upcoming October 29 elections becomes increasingly challenging.
A centrist coalition would require all five major parties (GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA, VVD, D66, and ChristenUnie) to reach the 76-seat majority needed to govern, a complicated arrangement that could lead to months of negotiations.
The Dutch coalition system means that even significant polling shifts don’t guarantee quick political solutions, as we’ve seen with the lengthy cabinet formation processes in recent years.
A government in chaos
The political landscape has become even more fragmented after the NSC left the cabinet last week following disagreements over the Netherlands’ response to the Gaza conflict.
This departure came just months after the PVV pulled out in June over asylum policy disputes, leaving Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s government with only two parties (VVD and BBB) holding just 32 of the 150 parliamentary seats.
Currently, the VVD and BBB are figuring out how to continue governing with something that resembles a cabinet.
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