A shorter third wave of coronavirus than previously predicted and fewer ICU admissions are the RIVM’s prognoses for the Netherlands. But hold your horses because the OMT is not entirely convinced.
According to new predictions from the RIVM on Friday, the peak of the third wave will be earlier than expected. In mid-March, it was predicted that the Netherlands would experience the peak at around May 1, but new data published by the RIVM suggest that the peak will be somewhere in mid-April.
Predicted ICU numbers also drop
The predicted number of ICU patients during the peak has also decreased, from 1,400 to 800 according to the NOS. This comes as welcome news for the Netherlands as it’s firmly settled into the third wave of coronavirus, with some hospitals already overflowing.
Growth Factor week-on-week:
🟢 cases: -5.9 %
🟢 hospitalizations (RIVM): -0.8 %
🟢 deaths: -14.1 %
Growth Factor day-on-day (7-day moving average):
🟢 cases: -2.8 %
Growth Factor day-on-day:
🟢 cases: -22.2 % pic.twitter.com/Vm4Xfh6DxD
— Yorick Bleijenberg 📈📊📉 (@YorickB) April 5, 2021
OMT has reservations
A spokesman for the OMT, Marc Bonten, tells Nieuwsuur that he is happy with the new predictions for the Netherlands, but he has reservations. He suggests that these figures are “on the assumption that many people will be vaccinated in the coming weeks. The second condition is that we do not relax.”
Bonten stresses that if either of these factors changes, these predictions could look very different in the coming weeks. He also says that he sees little room for easing of measures since the R number (rate of infection) is currently above one in the Netherlands.
How do you feel about the RIVM’s predictions? Let us know in the comments!
Feature Image: Matteo Jorjoson/Unsplash