Days after the Netherlands went to the polls, it’s still unclear who will emerge as the largest party.
According to the latest figures, D66 currently leads by just over 15,000 votes, but both D66 and Geert Wilder’s PVV are projected to hold 26 seats each in parliament.
At this point, a single municipality’s count could still tip the balance.
Waiting for Venray and the foreign votes
The suspense isn’t over yet. Officials are still waiting for the final count from the municipality of Venray and from the thousands of Dutch citizens who voted from abroad.
In Venray, local mayor Luc Winants estimated that around 24,000 votes were cast. According to NOS, the town expects to announce its results tomorrow, after delays earlier in the week due to a fire in the town hall that temporarily halted counting.
Meanwhile, about 135,000 Dutch voters abroad requested a ballot. Their votes are still being processed and aren’t expected until next week. That means the final outcome could remain uncertain for several more days.
Wilders wants to hit pause
PVV leader Geert Wilders has already called for a delay in the so-called “exploratory phase”, the first step in forming a coalition. He wants talks postponed until every last vote has been counted.
However, parliamentary chair Martin Bosma, also of the PVV, says discussions with party leaders will likely begin on Tuesday anyway. That meeting would be to appoint a verkenner, a scout who explores possible coalition options.
Can Wilders really lead?
If the PVV does end up narrowly on top, Wilders would have the right to take the first shot at forming a coalition. But that path looks nearly impossible.
A majority of Dutch parties have already made it clear they won’t govern with the PVV. Even if Wilders technically wins, the odds of him actually leading a cabinet are close to zero.
Want more context on what these election results actually mean? See the key takeaways.
Foreign mail-in votes could be decisive
The ballots from Dutch citizens voting abroad are likely to have a bigger impact on the final result than the remaining votes in Venray, reports NU.nl.
In total, 107,669 eligible Dutch voters were abroad on election day. The final results of their mail-in ballots are expected on Monday, as authorities are still collecting votes sent via embassies and consulates.
Two years ago, 69,396 people voted from abroad, with 7,243 for D66 and 4,380 for the PVV. Based on those figures, it seems unlikely that Wilders’ party will gain enough support overseas to overtake D66 as the largest.
What’s next?
All eyes are now on Venray and the overseas ballots, which could tip the balance one way or the other.
Whether D66 keeps its narrow lead or the PVV edges ahead, one thing’s for sure: forming a government will be a long and messy process. And, as always in Dutch politics, the real drama begins after the votes are counted.
Are you still refreshing the results page? Tell us in the comments who you think will ultimately come out on top.
