Netherlands records hottest June ever: what do experts predict for the rest of summer?

As shocking as that may be, Dutch weather isn’t completely random. In fact, research from the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) shows that Dutch summers tend to work in predictive patterns — so what do the experts expect for this summer?

Research indicates that if the summer starts wet and cool, there’s a high probability that it will also end wet and cool. On the other hand, a dry and hot beginning means that the whole summer will probably be dry and hot.  

What do we make out of this? Well, frankly, not much — because this year, the beginning of summer seems to have defied all logic

While we’ve experienced countless rainy days, some even leading to floods, this June was also the warmest one on record, reports

What’s next?

Meteorologists can give a reliable weather forecast about two weeks in advance. The days that are now ahead of us, can be classified as “slightly changeable summer weather” — meaning we will experience temperatures around 23 degrees, sun, and occasional rain showers.  

The patterns theory

The theory that summers can have two different weather patterns originally came from the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz — the same guy who incidentally came up with chaos theory. 

KNMI’s climate models now provide tentative evidence for his hypothesis. “If this is really true — and that needs to be further investigated —  this will increase the predictability of our summer weather,” says KNMI climate researcher Karin van der Wiel.

While the relationship is still uncertain, the institute writes: “we can probably expect high pressure and nice weather this summer as opposed to westerly winds that cause the rainy weather.” We’ll cling closely to that “probably.”

How do you feel about the weather we’re experiencing this year? Let us know in the comments below!

Feature Image: Hansenn/Depositphotos

Jana Vondráčková 🇨🇿
Originally from the Czech Republic, Jana moved to the Netherlands for her studies. She fell in love with the local biking culture, and you’ll see her drifting through the streets of Rotterdam on her pink bike even in the worst possible weather (think rain, snow, hail, or all three). Besides advocating for Rotterdam as the best Dutch city, she likes to wander around with a camera in her hand.


  1. “Meteorologists can give a reliable weather forecast about two weeks in advance.” In my experience in the NL they can’t predict the weather for next 2 hours 😉 I tend to think it’s impossible..:-)


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